Whispers from the palace walls suggest that Saudi Arabia is once again gripped by political tension, fueled by reports of royal arrests, hushed talks of a coup, and an escalating oil price war. Is the kingdom on the brink of another power struggle?
Since King Salman ascended the throne in 2015, succeeding the late King Abdullah, the primary drama within the House of Saud has revolved around the succession plan: how and when power will smoothly transition to his son, the ambitious Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS). But on March 6th, the carefully constructed facade of royal unity seemed to crack. Rumors swirled that the Crown Prince made a decisive move against figures perceived as threats to his ascent, rivals allegedly plotting to disrupt his path to kingship. While details remain murky and Saudi media has remained tight-lipped, the whispers are growing louder.
Historically, Saudi succession has been a delicate dance of age, seniority, and family consensus. However, the 34-year-old Crown Prince, young by royal standards, appears to be rewriting the rules. He seems less concerned with tradition and more focused on consolidating power. In a dramatic move in 2017, MbS famously confined numerous princes and businessmen in Riyadh’s luxurious Ritz-Carlton, accusing them of corruption and holding them until hefty financial settlements were reached. This unprecedented action sent shockwaves through the royal circles. Now, with the latest wave of arrests and interrogations, questions are intensifying about the Crown Prince’s ultimate ambitions, the King’s health, and the undercurrents of unease within the kingdom.
Who’s Been Swept Up in the Palace Purge?
Two names stand out among the arrested princes: Ahmad bin Abdulaziz, the King’s own younger brother, and Muhammad bin Nayef (MbN), the former Crown Prince who cultivated strong ties within the U.S. intelligence and security communities during his tenure as interior minister. Adding to the intrigue, one of Prince Ahmad’s sons was also reportedly detained. Furthermore, Interior Minister Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef and his father, Saud bin Nayef, governor of the oil-rich Eastern Province, were summoned for questioning by the Royal Court. Some reports suggest that over a dozen princes faced interrogation, painting a picture of a wide-reaching crackdown.
Alt: King Salman and Crown Prince MbS in official portrait, hinting at succession drama.
The significance of these figures in the succession saga lies in their connection to the late Prince Nayef. Had Prince Nayef, King Salman’s older full brother, not passed away in 2012, he would likely have become king. In that alternate reality, it’s widely believed he would have appointed MbN as his heir, potentially sidelining both Salman and MbS – a historical footnote that is undoubtedly fresh in the minds of the current key players.
Coup Talk: Fact or Fiction in the House of Saud?
It’s no secret that within the sprawling House of Saud, there are factions who harbor reservations about MbS becoming king. Concerns range from his perceived impulsiveness to fears that his leadership could jeopardize the family’s long-term rule. While less openly discussed, some may also disagree with his sweeping economic and social reforms.
The buzz of an actual coup attempt has diminished since MbS’s assertive removal of MbN from the line of succession in the summer of 2017. The sheer ruthlessness of that maneuver – reports circulated that MbN was stripped of his cell phones and even his diabetes medication – likely sent a chilling message to other ambitious princes. MbN has remained under house arrest, rarely seen in public, and this latest detention serves as a stark reminder of the Crown Prince’s firm grip on power.
Alt: Crown Prince MbS speaking confidently at a conference, amidst rumors of royal dissent.
Royal Family Watch: Who Else is in the Frame?
Intriguingly, reports have been silent on Mitab bin Abdullah, a key ally of MbN. Mitab, the son of the previous king and former head of the Saudi Arabian National Guard (a once powerful internal security force), was himself a Ritz-Carlton detainee in 2017. While believed to still be in the kingdom, four of his close male relatives are reportedly living in exile in Paris. Whispers of anti-MbS plots often revolve around MbN, Mitab, and their close circles, suggesting these figures remain points of interest in the ongoing royal drama.
On the Crown Prince’s side, his closest royal confidante is his younger brother Khalid, the former ambassador to Washington and current deputy defense minister. Other notable allies include Khalid al-Faisal, the governor of Mecca province often seen alongside King Salman, and his brother Turki al-Faisal, a former intelligence chief and ambassador in Washington with enduring connections in the US.
MbS has also strategically cultivated a new generation of royals, appointing them to prominent positions, possibly to secure the loyalty of their fathers. While this strategy may have backfired in some instances (like the appointment of Saud bin Nayef’s son as interior minister), it appears to have been successful in others (such as naming Turki al-Faisal’s son as sports minister). He has also elevated the children of Bandar bin Sultan, the former long-serving ambassador to Washington, with his daughter Reema currently serving as ambassador to the U.S. and his son Khalid as ambassador in London.
King Salman’s Health: A Palace Secret?
Even before King Salman’s ascension at the age of 79, questions lingered about his health. Having already lost two sons to heart attacks, accounts from ambassadors who met him described limited energy and difficulty sustaining conversations beyond fifteen minutes, even with prompts displayed on a discreetly hidden computer screen. His physical condition is reportedly even more frail today. (Western intelligence sources have also privately expressed concerns about the Crown Prince’s own frenetic lifestyle and potential health implications.)
Alt: King Salman in formal meeting, raising questions about his health amidst royal family gossip.
The King’s popularity remains unchallenged – his position as monarch places him above public criticism. Instead, the recent arrests might be interpreted as a “pointed warning to maintain support for the Crown Prince,” as described by the Wall Street Journal. While King Salman still commands respect and loyalty in many circles, crucially, this sentiment doesn’t automatically extend to MbS.
Beyond the Palace Walls: Domestic Pressures Mount
The Crown Prince’s ambitious Vision 2030 project is facing headwinds, evidenced by the underwhelming initial public offering of the state oil giant Saudi Aramco. Adding to the kingdom’s woes, the recent arrests coincided with the breakdown of talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers regarding production cuts. The consequence? Producers are set to increase output starting April 1st, triggering a dramatic plunge in global oil prices. Saudi Arabia, currently producing 9.7 million barrels per day, has hinted at exceeding 11 million barrels with significant price reductions, a move likely aimed at seizing market share from Russia, whose economy may struggle to cope with such low prices (Moscow officials have already publicly criticized Riyadh’s decision).
The coronavirus outbreak adds another layer of complexity, particularly with the sensitive detail that infected Saudis had recently traveled to Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. On March 8th, Saudi authorities announced a quarantine of Qatif, the kingdom’s predominantly Shia region, a decision likely to alienate local residents and disrupt oil facilities where many are employed.
Crown Prince’s Gambit: What’s Next for MbS?
Should King Salman’s reign end in the near future, MbS is likely to succeed him, regardless of internal family opposition, which appears fragmented and lacking unified leadership. The real challenges would emerge if King Salman remains alive but becomes incapacitated and unable to fulfill his public duties. While a symbolic Allegiance Council exists to address such matters, MbS would likely find ways to bypass it.
Abdication is an unlikely scenario, given the lingering negative precedent of King Saud’s forced removal in 1964 due to incompetence. Another possibility is Salman relinquishing some of his titles, such as prime minister. A more complex issue is his role as “Custodian of the Two Holy Places.” The recent partial closure of Mecca’s Grand Mosque due to the coronavirus raises questions about the kingdom’s ability to facilitate foreign pilgrimages if such measures persist.
U.S. Interests in the Royal Drama
Riyadh has been a long-standing U.S. ally, built on oil and security cooperation. However, maintaining this relationship’s support in Congress and among the American public has become increasingly challenging. While concerns about Saudi support for militant Islam have lessened, and counterterrorism cooperation is reportedly strong, human rights issues like the murder of Jamal Khashoggi and the ongoing detention of women’s rights activists like Loujain al-Hathloul have strained relations. Now, the prospect of Riyadh driving down oil prices could severely impact the U.S. shale oil industry, potentially turning the bilateral relationship into a contentious issue in the upcoming presidential election.
The Crown Prince’s moves against his royal rivals serve as a reminder that his priorities only partially align with those of the United States. However, a stable Saudi Arabia remains vital to U.S. interests, suggesting that a discreet and nuanced approach to the unfolding turmoil is the most prudent course of action.
Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.
